Looking forward to 2020 and beyond, the real estate investment industry will find itself at the centre of rapid economic and social change, which is transforming the built environment. While most of these trends are already evident, there’s a natural tendency to underestimate their implications over the next six years and beyond.
By 2020, real estate managers will have a broader range of opportunities, with greater risks and new value drivers. As real estate is a business with long development cycles – from planning to construction takes several years – now is the time to plan for these changes.
Six predictions for 2020 and beyond – in brief:
The changing real estate landscape will have substantial implications for the real estate investment community, which we highlight below and describe in more detail in Part three: Implications for real estate strategies.
- The global investable real estate universe will expand substantially, leading to a huge expansion in opportunity, especially in emerging economies. World population growth and increasing GDP per capita will propel this expansion. By 2020, investable real estate will have grown by more than 55% compared to 2012, according to PwC forecasts, and then will expand by a similar proportion in the following decade.
- Fast-growing cities will present a wider range of risk and return opportunities. Cities will present opportunities ranging from low risk/ low yield in advanced economy core real estate, to high risk/high reward in emerging economies. The greatest social migration of all time – chiefly in emerging economies – will drive the biggest ever construction surge.
- Technology innovation and sustainability will be key drivers for
value. All buildings will need to have ‘sustainability’ ratings, while new developments will need to be ‘sustainable’ in the broadest sense, providing their residents with pleasant places to live. Technology will disrupt real estate economics, making some types of real estate obsolete. - Collaborating with governments will become more important. Real estate managers, the investment community and developers will need to partner with government to mitigate risks of schemes that might otherwise be uneconomic. In many emerging economies, governments will take the lead in developing urban real estate and infrastructure.
- Competition for prime assets will intensify further. New wealth from the emerging economies will intensify competition for prime assets; the investment community will need to think laterally to earn attractive returns. They might have to develop assets in fast-growing but higher risk emerging economies, or specialise in the fast-growing subsectors, such as agriculture, retirement, etc.
- A broader range of risks will emerge. New risks will emerge. Climate change risk, accelerating behavioural change and political risk will be key. In order to prepare for these implications, the real estate investment organisations will need to make sure they have the right capabilities and qualities, as described in Part four: Success factors.
You can find the complete document via PWC: https://www.pwc.com/sg/en/real-estate/assets/pwc-real-estate-2020-building-the-future.pdf
